Time for Obama to hit the panic button...

All good news for McCain from New Mexico, North Dakota, and Alaska...
Plus good news from Virginia and Missouri... slightly bad news for McCain from Michigan and New Hampshire.

Michigan, New Hampshire, Missouri, Virginia polling data
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1840327,00.html?cnn=yes
New Mexico..
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election
North Dakota..
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election
Alaska...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election

Tim Pawlenty does well in meeting with press..

Tim Pawlenty has a great message.. The republican party needs to find its blue collar soul. The party needs to find more good ideas like school vouchers and private social security accounts. They must find these ideas and then fight for them.
I like Pawlenty as a safe choice for VP. I still firmly believe that the two candidates most likely to bring votes and electoral votes are Palin and Romney. But if Pawlenty did make Minnesota competitive then he would be worth his weight in gold. Then McCain could focus on making sure he wins Virginia and Ohio.
This brings to mind something I have been meaning to blog about...
McCain is in a great place when it comes to the electoral college. The only real edge Obama has is that he has made some state that will most likely vote Republican either toss ups or leaning Republican. When the election gears up and the candidates define themselves and each other more and more it is likely those states will fall to McCain and this election will be decided in Ohio.
If Obama wins... Indiana, North Carolina, Montanna, Alaska, South Carolina, or Georgia McCain is in for a long night.
However lets say Obama picks Tim Kaine and he delivers Virginia for Obama... If McCain picks Pawlenty and he delivers Wisconsin or Minnesota for McCain well then we have a wash.
I know I am rambling, but here is my point.
John McCain must win ... Ohio and Virginia(or Minnesota because of Pawlenty) and once he wins Ohio and Virginia it will come down to whether or not McCain can win EITHER Colorado or Michigan.


http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/06/vp-watch-pawlentys-turn/

"Broken"

This is the way John McCain needs to present himself!!

REGISTER TO VOTE!!!

https://www.johnmccain.com/ActionCenter/RegisterToVote/Information.aspx
make sure you and your friends are registered to vote!!

Tim Kaine loves Joe lieberman, Obama does not!!

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/kaine-lieberman.html

McCain ad is no success with stupid celebs..

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-cause1-2008aug01,0,6538800.story

Obama continues to present himself as the leader...

Now that he is back to North America Barack has brought with him a even greater sense of entitlement. Since his coronation in Germany has made some claims such claim that he has already rapped up the election earlier this week in Virginia or telling the congressional Democrats that he is the symbol of American possibility.
Obama seems to believe he has this election in the bag. Well I hope McCain and Clinton bloggers will unite and force Obama to fight a tough campaign.
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/07/30/so-is-obama-arrogant/

Tim Kaine is not all that popular..

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0708/Va_GOP_House_leader_urges_members_to_question_Kaines_popularity.html?showall
Virginia GOP intends to make that loud and clear. He is a devisive figure in Virginia politics.

Obama seems to have made his pick for VP Tim Kaine

a below average governor from Virginia.. hmmm?? Obama is cleary going to do anything he can to win this election. It may not have excited folks, but he should have picked a Biden or the like. Obama wants to have a obnoxious southern democrat with not foreign policy experience.. purely political pick...
I am done rambling, but bottem line Obama-Kaine 2008...

Obama's arrogance shows its ugly face

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/28/obama-odds-of-winning-are-very-good/
Obama comes back to American for a 100 day victory lap.. In his arrogant opinion...

Obama Kaine?? it seems very possible...

In a desperate attempt to win the state of Virginia Obama will most likely select an average to below average governor ..... Obama will do anything to win...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/28/AR2008072802041_pf.html

Congressmen Eric Cantor of Virginia.. potential McCain VP?

http://www.onenewsnow.com/Election2008/Default.aspx?id=191430
Could Cantor deliver Virginia? could he help among Jewish voters? theses are the important questions to ask...

Obama is going all out in Virginia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/16/AR2008071602817.html?hpid=topnews
John McCain has to respond to the latest move by Obama

Electoral strategies....

McCain's winning coalition hinges on winning Virginia that is a must. I have long said Michigan and Ohio are two musts, but when it comes down to it McCain needs to win Ohio and Virginia plus either Colorado or Michigan. Now in all this it is important to note Obama could win big and McCain would lose states like North Carolina and Indiana. I am only speaking with the assumption this is a close race. Ohio and Colorado or Michigan. If he wins those three McCain will win comfortably.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/the_big_5_picking_the_states_t.html

Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, or Tim Pawlenty

In the order above are my top picks for VP.
Mitt has two very important reasons..... 1. MONEY/Economy 2. MICHIGAN
Sarah Palin..... 1. Is a outstanding women who would no doubt bring in Soccer moms(Virginia/Indiana) 2. I believe she may help in western states, given Alaska is not right next to all of the Western states it does face similar issues.
Tim Pawlenty... He could help bring Minnesota back into play, or maybe help in Michigan or Wisconsin. He is very likable and this could help him for the future.

small business Vriginian switches to McCain

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2008/07/mccain_gets_coverage_by_local.html
McCain campaign is coming to life.

radio blitz in Virginia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryg7HmLA2-g&eurl=http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/

radio blitz in Virginia

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryg7HmLA2-g&eurl=http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/

Electoral Map -strategy room-

Keys to victory
A) above all keep Ohio and Florida
1. Keep Virginia and North Carolina
2. Keep Nevada
3. pick up Michigan
4.pick up New Hampshire

You will hear that Barack Obama will compete in Virginia and North Carolina in the final months of the campaign.... Maybe, but I doubt it, if he is in a position that he can spend money in those states most likely he has the election wrapped up.

At the rate these two candidates are going Barack Obama's name will be toxic in the southeast in about a week. All the money in the world will not be able to fix his bad name. Obama is new on the scene and he is not going to be welcome soon.

His message of putting the era of partisanship to rest was beyond false. He is the most divisive politician our country has seen in some time. I think people will have to wonder what exactly his change is... I have not figured it out yet.

Come July-November this will be an election based on issues and you have to believe that with the amount of time McCain and Obama have they can clearly define those issues. McCain and the GOP need to good job of explaining that "Big" oil is a relative term and they do not need to be scapegoated for our governments failures.

Time will tell and Obama has a strong machine, but at the end of the day if McCain can increase his support among women ever so slightly and energize the base he stands a great chance of winning. One thing is for sure Obama's partisan bickering is going to help get the base going and if McCain continues to emphasize his lower taxes we might pull this one out.

* as you can tell if you read this blog it is motivated by whatever is on my mind... that said I hope to keep giving you updates on my electoral outlook.

I will do something I do from time to time

I am going to put on my analyst hat.
McCain-
Head north then head east. It has become apparent that the liberal media believes every state is in play this year for Obama and if he takes a visit it basically turns blue. My suggestion for McCain as a electoral junkie.
Spend a week of visits and tv ads in the North East, give it a try. During that week you can pull all resources out of New Mexico and Colorado. Give it a try see what happens, if you get a positive response maybe folks in those wealthy states will open up their checkbooks so you can afford TV ads. It will help solidify New Hampshire... who knows what it would do with New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts, maybe even Maine. It could even help in Virginia and Pennsylvania. If you do take this trip and accompany it with a TV blitz it will surely at least make Obama consider going on the defensive.
- I would forget Iowa, but I think it is important to compete in the Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa area. I think a consistent effort in that area will keep Obama busy.
- McCain must take a trip and hold a rally in Virginia and North Carolina.
- Focus on turning Michigan and New Hampshire red. If he can turn both of those states he will have a great amount of breathing room.
- The biggest advantage McCain has is pretty simple... of the Bush-Kerry map... the only states that look certain to flip are... to Obama- Iowa and Colorado. and to McCain Michigan and New Hampshire. The liberal media can say whatever they want and yes Ohio is going to be the state once again, but the most likely flops are those mentioned above. This means in the final months McCain and Obama can focus on those two states. This mean Gods and Guns, and that has to make McCain feel very good.

food for thought Bush won 286-252... assuming McCain holds ohio he has some breathing room.
I know this is rambling, but a final note.

* I would make a very strong bet that the south including Virginia and North Carolina vote for McCain, I would also bet that Nevada stays red. I would also bet Olberscum, Anderson Cooper, Candy Crowley, Wolf Blitzer, Arianna Huffinton and David Gergen are all crying on Election night.