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Friday, May 16, 2008

George W Bush's greatest gift to the GOP

W really set up a map that we can all look at and define presidential favorites. He also managed to develope a map in such a way that it favors the GOP. Considering the 2004 election he even gave McCain some breathing room. Here are some interesting facts that look good for McCain heading into 2008
All these are under the assumption that all things are equal from the 2004 map
- if McCain loses Ohio, but offsets it with a victory in New Hampshire. McCain wins the election 270-268
-McCain can lose Iowa and Colorado and still win the election
-McCain can lose Virginia or NC and still win the election
-If McCain manages to hold Ohio and pick up Michigan or Pennsylvania than he is the nominee almost certainly.
* studying the electoral map it is clear that this race will be won or lost in the rust belt
McCain's most important states
-Ohio and Florida- McCain has to win these states in order to win the election( I noted above he could switch ohio and new hampshire, but there will likely see several states switch columns.)
2. MICHIGAN!! the DNC primary debacle should open the door. If he can win Michigan he has plenty of breathing room.
3. the rest of the Bush coalition- if he does well in the Bush states and wins any 2 of the following
Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania than he wins the election
*** This leads me to believe that at some point when McCain was focused on helping W win elections, Bush told McCain if you help me when the election in 2004 I will hand you a blue print for an easy electoral victory in 2008, well I think the problem is if Bush was even an arguably good president then I think McCain would roll to a mighty victory.

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