McCain's winning coalition hinges on winning Virginia that is a must. I have long said Michigan and Ohio are two musts, but when it comes down to it McCain needs to win Ohio and Virginia plus either Colorado or Michigan. Now in all this it is important to note Obama could win big and McCain would lose states like North Carolina and Indiana. I am only speaking with the assumption this is a close race. Ohio and Colorado or Michigan. If he wins those three McCain will win comfortably.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/the_big_5_picking_the_states_t.html
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