in the latest poll from SurveyUSA Obama leads by 4... 50-46
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8
last week McCain led by 2... 49-47
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=30939022-fb4c-4e07-bd5b-aa6f9d18d6df
However if you look insid the numbers of the polls you will see they were not the exact same.
the most recent I will refer to as Poll#1 the older post will be Poll#2
Poll #1 surveyed
1. 29% conservative voters
Po1#2 surveyed
1.35% conservative voters
Poll#1 surveyed
2.33% Republicans and 37% Democrats
Poll#2 surveyed
2. 35% Republican and 36% Democrats
Poll#1 surveyed
3. 39% pro life and 57% pro choice
Poll #2 surveyed
3. 44% pro life and 52% pro choice
I am not claiming to know which sample size is better or which poll is more accurate. I am also no trained pollster to know if that is that big of a difference. But I think the the more recent survey was a slightly more liberal portrait of Virginia than the survey taken a week before.
But it highlights what I fear, that is just a subtle difference in turnout can change the outcome of this election. If I had to guess who will have better turnout I would have to assume it would be the Obama machine.
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